Is Poland an extended warfront?

The role Poland is now playing on the Russia-Ukraine battle frontier is too important, and too dangerous at the same time.  

With its doors open, Poland so far absorbed 1.2 million Ukrainian who fled home to survive Russia's invasion. The refugee influx was the most extensive and rapid in Europe since World War II. Simultaneously, the NATO member turned out to be the lynchpin of the Western effort to defend Ukraine and deter Russian military assault.

The role exposes Warsaw to considerable danger, but patches things up with its Western allies.

But the question is how far Poland would go and how much it would get involved on a potentially explosive warfront.

The answer, at least for now, is that Poland will not do anything that smacks of direct involvement in the war. Like other NATO members, Poland is well aware of Vladimir Putin's threats against countries that interfere in Ukraine.  

According to international media reports, the western allies of Kyiv have sent hundreds of Stinger missiles, Javelin anti-tank weapons and other munitions through Poland. Pentagon officials say that most of the weapons have already reached Ukraine.

The US is working with Poland and consulting with other NATO allies on possibly having those countries supply warplanes to Ukraine for use against Russian forces. So far, Polish officials say they will not be sending warplanes to Ukraine, though there are reports that suggest the warplanes might be supplied in unassembled form.

Poland itself has already sent an ammunition convoy to Ukraine, and plans to send mortars, small drones and man-portable missile systems from its own supplies.

"The biggest share of military equipment, both lethal and non-lethal, will go through Poland," says Konrad Muzyka, head of Rochan Consulting, a military-analysis firm.

Ukrainian who had been working aboard are also returning home through the Polish border to join the fight against Russia. Poland is also home to Europe's largest 1.5 million Ukrainian diaspora, a large batch of potential fighters.

Over the first ten days of the war, Polish border guards recorded 217,000 crossings into Ukraine.

On 6 March, Ukraine's foreign ministry announced that some 20,000 volunteers from 52 countries had signed up to join an "international legion" to defend Ukraine. Most of the foreigners, as well as most of the returning Ukrainians, will get there by way of Poland.

Quoting the EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, Russian news agency TAAS in the last week of February reported that Poland has offered to serve as "a logistics hub" for the transfer of assistance to Ukraine.

But Polish officials are more tightlipped on the subject, which suggests the offer was not supposed to be made public.

"Like it or not, we are going to be the main link in the chain connecting Ukraine and the West," former Polish brigadier-general Stanislaw Koziej told Foreign Policy.   

Poland's location, infrastructure, and demography make it the West's most important gateway to Ukraine. The country shares a 530km border with Ukraine, while the airport in southeastern Polish city Rzeszow is the closest airport to Ukraine on NATO territory.

The airport recently saw an uptick in military flights in and out, presumably involved in weapons deliveries.    

If Kyiv falls to the Russians, which is still far from guaranteed, Ukrainian troops and volunteers would most likely regroup in the west of the country, possibly in Lviv that is only 80km from the Polish border. Even this would raise the importance of Poland further.

But there are innumerable risks involved, too. If the war lasts longer, Russia might be aiming at the weapon supply line in a desperate move.    

"I am afraid that Russian rocket attacks against those supply lines are something we have to take into account in the coming days and weeks. There is no alternative, because we are in the same boat. The only difference is that Ukraine's in the front, and we are in the back," Wojciech Kononczuk, deputy director of the Warsaw-based think-tank Centre for Eastern Studies, told Foreign Policy.