High inflation to stick this year, denting global growth: Reuters poll
Skip to main content
  • Home
  • Economy
  • Stocks
  • Analysis
  • World+Biz
  • Sports
  • Splash
  • Features
  • Videos
  • Long Read
  • Games
  • Epaper
  • More
    • COVID-19
    • Bangladesh
    • Infograph
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Thoughts
    • Podcast
    • Quiz
    • Tech
    • Subscribe
    • Archive
    • Trial By Trivia
    • Magazine
    • Supplement
  • বাংলা
The Business Standard
THURSDAY, MAY 26, 2022
THURSDAY, MAY 26, 2022
  • Home
  • Economy
  • Stocks
  • Analysis
  • World+Biz
  • Sports
  • Splash
  • Features
  • Videos
  • Long Read
  • Games
  • Epaper
  • More
    • COVID-19
    • Bangladesh
    • Infograph
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Thoughts
    • Podcast
    • Quiz
    • Tech
    • Subscribe
    • Archive
    • Trial By Trivia
    • Magazine
    • Supplement
  • বাংলা
High inflation to stick this year, denting global growth: Reuters poll

Global Economy

Reuters
28 January, 2022, 04:30 pm
Last modified: 28 January, 2022, 04:35 pm

Related News

  • Garment exporters fear drop in order amid global inflation
  • Australian inflation hits 20-yr high, May rate rise seen in play
  • World Bank says war to cut global growth, boosts financing target
  • It's the uncertainty that makes inflation terrible
  • Wall St set to fall on inflation angst as oil breaches $130

High inflation to stick this year, denting global growth: Reuters poll

While price pressures are still expected to ease in 2023, the inflation outlook is much stickier than three months ago

Reuters
28 January, 2022, 04:30 pm
Last modified: 28 January, 2022, 04:35 pm
Valdeci hunts for deals at several stores.PHOTOGRAPHER: TUANE FERNANDES FOR BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK
Valdeci hunts for deals at several stores.PHOTOGRAPHER: TUANE FERNANDES FOR BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK

Persistently high inflation will haunt the world economy this year, according to a Reuters poll of economists who trimmed their global growth outlook on worries of slowing demand and the risk interest rates would rise faster than assumed so far.

This represents a sea change from just three months ago, when most economists were siding with central bankers in their then-prevalent view that a surge in inflation, driven in part by pandemic-related supply bottlenecks, would be transitory.

In the latest quarterly Reuters surveys of over 500 economists taken throughout January, economists raised their 2022 inflation forecasts for most of the 46 economies covered.

While price pressures are still expected to ease in 2023, the inflation outlook is much stickier than three months ago.

At the same time, economists downgraded their global growth forecasts. After expanding 5.8% last year, the world economy is expected to slow to 4.3% growth in 2022, down from 4.5% predicted in October, in part because of higher interest rates and costs of living. Growth is seen slowing further to 3.6% and 3.2% in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

Nearly 40% of those who answered an additional question singled out inflation as the top risk to the global economy this year, with nearly 35% picking coronavirus variants, and 22% worried about central banks moving too quickly.

"The odds of an accident have risen and the likelihood of a soft landing in 2022 requires some favourable assumptions and a modicum of good luck," Deutsche Bank group chief economist David Folkerts-Landau said, noting high inflation, the persistence of supply chain strains and the pandemic, as well as international political tensions.

This month's Reuters polls found 18 of 24 major central banks were expected to lift rates at least once this year, compared to 11 in the October poll.

The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday signaled it would raise the benchmark federal funds rate from a record low of 0-0.25% in March after shuttering its bond purchase programme.

The Bank of England was the first major central bank to raise rates since the pandemic started and is expected to act again, the Bank of Canada is also seen hiking soon.

In contrast, most economists expect the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan to stay put at least until the end of next year.

While the tightening cycle is in early days in developed markets, many emerging market central banks, with a few notable exceptions like Brazil and China, are waiting for the Fed's cue while grappling with the pandemic and their own economic challenges.

Reuters Poll: Global growth outlook - January 2022
Reuters Poll: Global growth outlook - January 2022

"Over the past three decades, developed market central banks led by the Fed have been inclined to see supply shocks boosting inflation as a drag on growth that should be cushioned," noted Joseph Lupton, global economist at J.P. Morgan.

However, with major central banks showing concern about bringing inflation expectations close to their targets, emerging economies face a similar challenge.

"Pressure on emerging market central banks to act to anchor inflationary expectations is likely to intensify," Lupton said.

The growth outlook for over 60% of the 46 economies covered in the polls was either downgraded or left unchanged for 2022 and about 90% of respondents, 144 of 163, said there was a downside risk to their forecasts.

While most countries saw cuts in growth forecasts for the fourth quarter and the current one, largely due to the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant, they were expected to rebound next quarter.

(For other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package read more )

  

  

Top News / World+Biz

High inflation / Global High inflation / Global inflation / global growth

Comments

While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderation decisions are subjective. Published comments are readers’ own views and The Business Standard does not endorse any of the readers’ comments.

Top Stories

  • VAT on locally-made mobile phones, fridges on cards
    VAT on locally-made mobile phones, fridges on cards
  • Wheat stock at 3-year low and that may not be good for rice
    Wheat stock at 3-year low and that may not be good for rice
  • Ousted Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan gestures as he travels on a vehicle to lead a protest march in Islamabad, Pakistan May 26, 2022. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro
    Azadi March: Imran gives 6-day ultimatum to announce polls

MOST VIEWED

  • Representational Image. Gold bars and coins are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, August 14, 2019. REUTERS/Michael Dalder/File Photo
    Gold dips on rising yields after Fed minutes signal patience
  • Pent-up demand for the PS5, which offers cutting-edge graphics, faster load times and a new controller with immersive feedback, has been exacerbated by the pandemic Photo: Reuters
    Sony to ramp up PS5 production and broaden games portfolio
  • Oil and gas tanks are seen at an oil warehouse at a port in Zhuhai, China October 22, 2018. REUTERS/Aly Song/Files
    Oil firms on tight supply though EU ban on Russian oil still uncertain
  • A man wearing a protective mask, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, walks past an electronic board displaying graphs (top) of Nikkei index outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon
    Asian shares stumble on growth worries as central banks tighten
  • Photo: Collected
    G7 scrambles to keep climate agenda on track
  • Illustration: Collected
    Nvidia says video gaming market slowing; shares drop 7%

Related News

  • Garment exporters fear drop in order amid global inflation
  • Australian inflation hits 20-yr high, May rate rise seen in play
  • World Bank says war to cut global growth, boosts financing target
  • It's the uncertainty that makes inflation terrible
  • Wall St set to fall on inflation angst as oil breaches $130

Features

Impact Hub Dhaka is designed to cater to connectivity, offering lots of communal areas where you can chat over coffee, watch a webinar as a group or even host events. Photo: Courtesy

Inside Impact Hub: The surprising benefits of working in a co-working space

47m | Pursuit
Pacific Jeans uses sustainable technology in washing and finishing, and now has the facility to wash with zero water. Photo: Courtesy

How big dreams and smart investment made Pacific Jeans a denim exporting giant 

1h | Panorama
Psycure has received various awards for their extraordinary contributions to promoting Sustainable Development Goals. Photo: Courtesy

Psycure: Meet the organisation serving the underserved university students (and beyond) with mental healthcare 

23h | Panorama
Underlying problems such as school dropouts need to be addressed first before taking a legal route to stop child labour. Photo: Reuters

‘Child labour in a country like Bangladesh is primarily a development issue, not so much of enforcement’

1d | Panorama

More Videos from TBS

Tea tales at TSC

Tea tales at TSC

1h | Videos
What journalism students want to know

What journalism students want to know

1h | Videos
Where the people have more weapons than military

Where the people have more weapons than military

12h | Videos
Govt plans to amnesty in the offing to bring back laundered money to meet dollar crises

Govt plans to amnesty in the offing to bring back laundered money to meet dollar crises

14h | Videos

Most Read

1
Tk100 for bike, Tk2,400 for bus to cross Padma Bridge
Bangladesh

Tk100 for bike, Tk2,400 for bus to cross Padma Bridge

2
Bangladesh at risk of losing ownership of Banglar Samriddhi
Bangladesh

Bangladesh at risk of losing ownership of Banglar Samriddhi

3
BSEC launches probe against Abul Khayer Hero and allies
Stocks

BSEC launches probe against Abul Khayer Hero and allies

4
Photo: Courtesy
Panorama

Misfit Technologies: A Singaporean startup rooted firmly in Bangladesh

5
Illustration: TBS
Banking

Let taka slide

6
Photo: Collected
Industry

Spanish recycled cotton producer opens new facility in Bangladesh

The Business Standard
Top
  • Home
  • Entertainment
  • Sports
  • About Us
  • Bangladesh
  • International
  • Privacy Policy
  • Comment Policy
  • Contact Us
  • Economy
  • Sitemap
  • RSS

Contact Us

The Business Standard

Main Office -4/A, Eskaton Garden, Dhaka- 1000

Phone: +8801847 416158 - 59

Send Opinion articles to - oped.tbs@gmail.com

For advertisement- sales@tbsnews.net

Copyright © 2022 THE BUSINESS STANDARD All rights reserved. Technical Partner: RSI Lab