The Kremlin wanted to ensure that Zelensky doesn't join Nato and the European Union. Their second objective was to take full control of Eastern Europe, including access to the sea. And the third objective was to weaken Zelensky or install a government in line with Russia. Two objectives have already been fulfilled, but the third objective hasn't.
Therefore we can't say the Kremlin has won, but the ball is certainly in their court. It is now the Kremlin who has to decide. We still have to see how Europe reacts, whether this takes a turn to civil war, but right now, Russia is certainly in an advantageous position and in a position to dictate.
The invasion could have certainly been avoided if the guarantees were provided before the invasion. The West and Kyiv failed to continue confidence-building measures between Moscow and Kyiv.
Since the Crimea invasion, the EU should have been working to keep the status quo between the Kremlin and Kyiv alive. We are in this situation because the status quo has not been maintained. This was a massive political failure of the West. However, the invasion cannot be justified at any cost because human casualty is the greatest tragedy.
Shahab Enam Khan is professor of International Relations, Jahangirnagar University