Climate migration in Bangladesh may increase seven-fold by 2050: ActionAid

Highlight: 

• 63 million people will be forced to migrate from their homes due to climate disasters by 2050 if the global community fails to limit warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius.

• This is almost as many people as are forced from their homes globally due to war and conflict. 

• Climate migration could easily surpass conflict as a driving force of displacement.

•  83% of people who live in floodplain areas are directly impacted by riverbank erosion.

• Communities can be resilient to climate change, slow-onset climate disasters – such as sea-level rise, drought, failed harvests, and loss of biodiversity – but this takes money and political will. 

Bangladesh could see a seven-fold increase in climate migration, forcing three million people to migrate from their homes due to climate disasters by 2050.

This number is more than double the South Asian average, according to new research conducted by ActionAid International and the Climate Action Network South Asia.

Across South Asia, 63 million people will be forced to migrate from their homes due to climate disasters by 2050 if the global community fails to limit warming to well below two degrees Celsius as per the Paris Agreement's goals.

New analysis estimates that climate migration will treble in South Asia by slow-onset events such as: sea level rise, water stress, loss of biodiversity, and drought. 

The region is also badly affected by extreme weather events like floods and cyclones however these were not included in this study, said the ActionAid Bangladesh in a press release on Sunday.

The research was undertaken by Bryan Jones at the Marxe School of Public and International Affairs, Baruch College, New York, one of the authors of the inaugural Groundswell Report on internal climate migration in 2018. 

The new research released on 18 December, 2020 – International Migrants Day – has broadened its analysis to incorporate new drivers of climate migration, which includes loss of biodiversity and drought, alongside impacts on the water and agriculture sectors that were included in the Groundswell report, and updated projections of sea-level rise.

The report titled "Costs of Climate Inaction: Displacement and Distress Migration" assesses climate-fuelled displacement and migration across five South Asian countries – Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka – and calculates a devastating likelihood of 63 million people being homeless and displaced by 2050 in South Asia alone. 

This is almost as many people as are forced from their homes globally due to war and conflict, raising the alarm that climate can no longer be overlooked as a major factor driving displacement. 

Climate migration could easily surpass conflict as a driving force of displacement if political leaders continue to renege on their commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris Agreement.

Communities can be resilient to climate change, slow-onset climate disasters – such as sea-level rise, drought, failed harvests, and loss of biodiversity – but this takes money and political will.

The new report by ActionAid and partners Climate Action Network South Asia and Bread for the World calls for strong leadership and ambition from developed countries to cut emissions and support for developing countries to adapt to climate change and recover from climate disasters. 

It recommends a holistic approach that places the onus on rich countries to provide support and urges developing countries to scale up efforts to protect people from climate impacts. 

Farah Kabir, country director of ActionAid Bangladesh, said, "Our cities in Bangladesh do not have the readiness to deal with climate induced migration. The national budget shows us that there has been allocation of thousands of crores of taka for climate relevant investment, though the adequacy and effectiveness of the investment for the protection of vulnerable communities from climate related disasters remains questionable."

"The current system of social security that is operating in Bangladesh is more of a mere band-aid measure to the crisis. All future climate investment must focus on making migration an informed choice not a compulsion or last option for women and children. Bangladesh alone cannot find the long-term solutions without global action," she added.

Dr Shamsuddoha, chief executive of Centre for Participatory Research and Development, said, "Our recent study indicates that 83% of people who live in floodplain areas are directly impacted by riverbank erosion, with the majority of people being displaced multiple times."

He further said, "People living in the flood zones of Bangladesh are forced to migrate due to the increased rate of river erosion, higher intensity of floods and unpredictable rainfall. This leads to a loss of livelihoods, agricultural land, and an increase in social conflicts within communities. Governments need to strengthen communities to address climate change induced migration."

Sanjay Vashist, director of Climate Action Network South Asia, said, "Bangladesh is geographically vulnerable to climate disasters and is regularly lashed with floods and cyclones, but poverty and a development deficit are also determining factors in this climate migration crisis." 

"South Asian leaders must join forces and prepare plans for the protection of displaced people. They must be supported by the rich nations in stepping up financial resources for universal and effective social protection measures, resilience plans and green infrastructure to respond to the climate crisis and help those who have been forced to move," said Sanjay Vashist.