Potentials are even greater, but governance, politics matter
In general, the Bloomberg economist has used good commonsensical arguments to project what Bangladesh's growth prospects might look like in the medium and longer terms. My feeling is that Bangladesh's potential is greater, for three reasons:
It is possible to embark upon a much stronger, more inclusive educational and skill development programme that would take our demographic dividend to a higher plane. It is true that this window of opportunity is limited and steps need to be taken seriously to upgrade the educational and training sector.
The environmental challenge has been discussed. The threat is grave but steps can be taken to contain adverse effects. This requires research, new technology and behavioural change on a much larger scale than is witnessed currently.
The third element is governance – which Bloomberg has not touched upon. The fact that Bangladesh's macro governance in a number of key sectors remains poor; the fact that the governance reforms agenda has remained largely unaddressed, means that there is substantial untapped potential to unleash untapped growth once the reforms are carried out.
Thus, in my view, the potential for Bangladesh is, in fact, much greater than what Bloomberg suggests. The most serious risk – not mentioned by Bloomberg however – is politics, an area that needs to be quickly brought into equilibrium.
